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EDITOR’S DESK
Word on the Weather
Admittedly, weather forecasting as a profession doesn’t seem to get a lot of respect. People joke that it’s a job where you can be wrong and still get paid. In fact, if there’s one thing folks like to complain about more than the weather, it’s the weather forecaster, especially when they get it wrong.
In our home, though, there’s one meteorologist who is spared even the slightest criticism. Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s most famous weather prognosticator, is held in high regard in our family for his annual predictions about how much more winter we can expect. We’ve even made a trip to Gobbler’s Knob, out in United Electric Cooperative’s service territory, to pay a visit to the furry forecaster. After all, he is the “seer of seers.”
But when you’re as famous as Phil, people like to compare notes. The weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) point out that Phil gets it right only about 40% of the time, “even though he’s been forecasting since 1887.” Longtime forecasters over at the Farmers’ Almanac say they don’t use “folklore” for their predictions. Instead, they employ a “mathematical and astronomical formula” that is accurate 80% to 85% of the time, according to their website. And now, artificial intelligence (AI) has entered the weather game. In a test of AI-based forecasting, Google’s experimental software recently outperformed the world’s most accurate weather prediction models. Quite a feat, but I’m sure it didn’t involve a top hat ceremony.
No matter the model or the method, the weather business has gotten trickier lately. In terms of their frequency and intensity, extreme weather events seem to be the new normal. Five different organizations, including NOAA, declared 2023 the hottest year on record. NOAA also noted the past year contained a record number of billion-dollar weather- and climate-related disasters in the U.S. (28). Some of that severe weather impacted Pennsylvania, with tornadoes touching down in cooperative areas and causing significant damage. Researchers note these extreme events are making weather prediction even more difficult.
Given all they’re up against, maybe it’s time we gave meteorologists a break. At least in our home, Phil’s Feb. 2 forecast will be spot on. Early spring or six more weeks of winter, we’ll take his prediction as the word on the weather.
PETER A. FITZGERALD
EDITOR
SNOW MORE STREAK
January storm ends central Pa.'s string of snowless days
When the Jan. 6 snowstorm arrived, it ended central Pennsylvania’s 346-day streak of no accumulating snow, according to the National Weather Service. The last time the region had any measurable snow was Jan. 25, 2023.
Central Pennsylvania isn’t the only area missing out on accumulating snow. Before the early January storm, the following cities had lengthy snow droughts, too: Washington, D.C., 719 days without snow measuring more than 1 inch; Baltimore, 707 days; Philadelphia, 706 days; New York City, 691 days; and Boston, 316 days.
DOGGONE IT!
Pittsburgh pup has expensive taste
Cecil, a Pittsburgh goldendoodle, has gone viral thanks to his expensive taste. The dog ate $4,000 in cash after his owners, Clayton and Carrie Law, placed the money for a home improvement project on a kitchen counter.
Over the next few days, the Laws spent considerable time and effort piecing together the bills that came out both ends of the dog. They were able to recover $3,550 with serial numbers intact, meaning the money could be replaced. It’s also possible the pair will be able to recover the remaining $450 through the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.
The U.S. Treasury reports it handles, on average, about 24,000 claims and redeems an average of $30 million worth of damaged and mutilated currency annually.
Now that’s something to chew on.
POPULATION SHIFTS
As nation's population grows, Pennsylvania's numbers decline
The U.S. population is increasing (a 1.6 million-person gain between July 2022 and July 2023); however, Pennsylvania lost about 10,400 residents, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Pennsylvania’s population is now listed at 12.96 million. States that lost the most population during the time period were New York, California and Illinois.
Several of Pennsylvania’s neighbors increased in population, with New Jersey adding 30,000, Ohio gaining 26,000, Maryland gaining 16,000 and Delaware gaining 12,000. Neighboring West Virginia also lost population, shrinking by about 4,000 residents.
“U.S. migration returning to pre-pandemic levels and a drop in deaths are driving the nation’s growth,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, in a press release. “Although births declined, this was tempered by the near 9% decrease in deaths. Ultimately, fewer deaths paired with rebounding immigration resulted in the nation experiencing its largest population gain since 2018.”
Pennsylvania’s population grew rapidly between 1900 and 1960, then slowed, taking 40 years to grow from 11 million people to 12 million in 2000. Recent decades have seen growth in southeast and south-central Pennsylvania, while the population has stayed the same or declined in the remainder of the state.
TAKING ITS TOLL
New year brings higher rates for Pa. Turnpike travelers
A year after its last increase, the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission has once again raised tolls by 5%. The new rates took effect in early January.
According to the commission, the most-common toll for a passenger vehicle has increased from $1.80 to $1.90 for E-ZPass customers and from $4.40 to $4.70 for Toll By Plate customers. Rates for tractor-trailers also went up.
“Our annual toll increases directly support the escalating Act 44 debt service we have had to manage due to the mandates of Act 44 of 2007,” said Rick Dreher, the commission’s chief financial officer. “However, even given that significant financial management challenge, our per-mile toll rates are lower than national toll averages and remain in the mid-range among the 47 toll roads in the U.S.”
In addition to the toll increases, the commission said it has taken “internal steps to control costs” that include debt refinancing, a leaner work force and capital project cuts. It has also introduced non-toll funding sources, such as electric-vehicle chargers at service plazas.
The commission is in the midst of implementing an all-electronic overhead tolling system along the turnpike that drivers pass under with no need to slow down or pass through a booth. The first portion of open-road tolling is expected to be operational in 2025.
TIME LINES — February 2014
A decade ago, Penn Lines readers got a behind-the-scenes look at what it’s like to be a rural electric cooperative director. Elected by fellow members, directors help co-ops navigate the complex electric utility industry. It’s a huge responsibility, and many are committed to taking training to better serve consumers and their cooperatives.
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Allegheny and You
How Rural Electric Cooperatives Banded Together to Forge a Reliable Energy Future